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Pandemic and Avian Influenza: Much Ado about Nothing?

by Cliff Thomas, CBCP, and Harmony A. Scofield

Over the past few years, Bird Flu Fatigue has set in— we have all read and seen a lot of information about the potential impacts of a pandemic influenza outbreak. So is all the hype just a re-run of Y2K? This article is intended to present facts and figures that will enable you to form your own opinion as to the severity of this threat. And, if you conclude that the threat is legitimate, we’ve provided you with ideas and initial steps that can be used to prepare your company for a pandemic.

Is H5N1 bird flu unique?

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No and yes. On the one hand, the flu is just as common among bird species as it is in humans. However, bird flu is of concern because of the particular strain (H5N1) that is expanding in some bird populations. H5N1 is highly pathogenic in humans and resembles the 1918 Spanish Flu strain that resulted in the death of tens of millions of people worldwide. While it is rare that bird flu transmits to humans, if— and this is a big if— H5N1 genetically mutates into a human-to-human transmissible virus, this particular strain of influenza will likely lead to a global pandemic of devastating proportions.

Will H5N1 mutate into a human-to-human transmissible virus? We cannot know for sure, but what is known is that the flu virus is highly unstable and prone to mutate. Following such a mutation, the likelihood of a pandemic is expected to be high because humans will have no immunity to the new influenza virus.

Further, pandemics are not unusual since historically they occur 3 to 4 times a century. If we view the pandemic threat strictly from a statistical perspective, in 2007 we are in the 39th year of what is normally a 25-to-35 year occurrence. What is of such concern in the public health community is that we have a statistically probable event that coincides with a particularly pathogenic strain of bird flu.

Is your business at risk?

The short answer is that if a pandemic occurs, we’re all at risk. Influenza can spread as fast as an airplane flight— humans and shipped goods can carry and spread the virus between continents in a matter of hours. As recently as 2003, the SARS epidemic showed how quickly companies can be impacted by infectious diseases; the economic impact of SARS was estimated to be in the range of $30 to $50 billion. SARS was largely confined to geographies within China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada, but a pandemic will know no boundaries. Influenza can spread as fast as an airplane flight

So what can we expect in the case of an H5N1 pandemic? Mortality rates are anticipated to reach 1-2% of those infected. (Note that thus far the H5N1 mortality rate in humans has been about 60%.) Absenteeism is estimated at 25-50% for up to 16 weeks as employees care for themselves and family members... remember, schools may be closed and child-care may be unavailable. Requests for telecommuting and working remotely can be expected to increase, straining business networks. Governmental restrictions or quarantines may affect employees’ abilities to travel to and from work, and supply chain disruptions may impact food, medical and emergency supplies, and public utilities.

And unlike the Y2K threat, there is nothing to fix: there are no patches, no updates to install.

Knowing that a pandemic is a global threat, some companies are at more risk than others.

Businesses with offices in Asia or where there is extensive travel to and from Asia may be affected first.
Businesses that rely on a specialized workforce will find difficulty finding replacement workers during times of high absenteeism.
Working conditions that place employees in close quarters can hasten the spread of influenza.

Remote work capabilities and a distributed workforce may lessen the impacts if the flu hits certain geographies harder than others; however, providing to a distributed workforce during a pandemic will pose logistical challenges and requires highly effective communications with those employees.

How do we prepare?

Prevention, Preparation & Control

The old adage is that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. In the case of pandemic influenza, prevention measures are the first step to slowing the spread of the virus. Simple prevention and control measures start with personal hygiene. Employees should be trained in proper hand washing techniques, social distancing, cough etiquette, and increased sanitizing of common surfaces. Preparation for temporary changes in facility protocols for visitors and deliveries may also be appropriate. In addition, understanding how suppliers, business partners, and other leaders in the community are prepared to react may help in the creation of your own plan.

Business Continuity Planning

Companywide business continuity planning will be essential for those companies that wish to remain viable during and after a pandemic. Using a triage approach to focus on a business’ most critical operations— say the top 20% in terms of revenue, customer service, and regulatory compliance— will yield far greater results than planning for a business as usual work environment. Here are some initial planning tools and steps:

Business Impact Analysis (BIA). A BIA identifies and prioritizes critical functions that, if disrupted, would most significantly impact a facility manager’s ability to provide high-priority services. For each critical facility management function, the BIA process involves the identification of essential resources, dependent organizations, and required recovery timeframes.
Risk Assessment (RA). Risk assessments highlight the most significant threats at locations where critical functions are performed, enabling the identification of risk controls and viable continuity options.
Business Continuity Strategy Evaluation. In accordance with BIA and RA results, continuity options are evaluated and selected to optimize business function recoverability.
Business Continuity Plan (BCP) Development. Procedures, tasks, and resources that will be used to recover business functions are documented in standard plan format. Avoid one-off planning that requires vastly different resources or procedures from your other crisis recovery/management plans.
Plan Training and Testing. Periodic training and testing is necessary to ensure that key individuals can effectively execute plans.
Plan Maintenance. Periodic plan reviews and updates are required to ensure that plans contain current and accurate information.

This information is available in greater detail, along with checklists and sample BCP manuals, in the IFMA Pandemic Manual provided on IFMA’s website (www.ifmafoundation.org).

Communication Before and During a Crisis

Build awareness before there is an emergency. It is difficult to communicate with a group of people who are worried or in a state of panic, so it helps to build awareness before there is an emergency. Be a consistent and reliable source of information for your employees and you will have their ear during a crisis. This can help keep the gossip mill in check as well. Make sure to connect with remote employees; make travel and office visit protocols clear. Planning ahead and practicing for a crisis event is crucial— if you wait until the crisis hits, it may already be too late to effectively control the situation.

So what does it all mean…?

Again, nobody knows for certain if or when the next pandemic will occur. Because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean that the risk has decreased. Simply put, we are faced with a naturally occurring phenomenon with characteristics that are atypically severe. We all hope that a pandemic will not occur, but to say that it is unlikely is not to say that somehow we are now exempt from what has occurred routinely in the past.

We owe it to our employees, our customers, our stockholders, and others to evaluate this threat with the consideration that it warrants. Businesses are not well served by ignoring the threat or by touting it as a doomsday scenario.

Recommended Next Steps

Realize that there are no free passes; we’re all at risk if this happens. A pandemic is certainly possible, even probable, but it’s still a big if. Take the threat seriously, but realize the sky isn’t falling. Ensuring that your employees are prepared and that your company has a plan to manage a pandemic situation is the first step to making it through with minimal impact.

Focus on flu prevention awareness: It’s never too early to emphasize hygiene and sanitation techniques. Start now to build a culture that controls the problem.
Monitor the situation closely: there is ample news about the bird flu and its potential to spread. Watch for indicators that it’s time to take action. Don’t react before carefully evaluating the situation and reviewing your plan for the most appropriate next steps.
Communicate, communicate, communicate. Make sure your staff knows the plan. If they are confident in their roles in a potential situation, they’ll be more effective in a crisis situation.
Planning

Plan for the loss of people and external support. Are there backup systems in place? Are employees in other regions cross-trained to be able to cover for ill or quarantined employees?
Build on existing plans— use your existing crisis communication and disaster recovery plans as a base for your pandemic mitigation plan.

Once you have a plan, train your staff. Train and communicate with your suppliers, if possible. Training exercises and drills will help employees feel comfortable with implementing the plan in real time. Update the plans regularly as employees, resources, and facility information changes. Don’t let your plan languish in a filing cabinet. Make it a living document that every employee has a stake in.
Become educated on local government and community plans. Know where and how health care, supplies, and information will be available locally, and determine how your organization can use those resources or even become a resource for other local businesses or individuals.

Additional Resources:

The IFMA Foundation manual available online at www.ifmafoundation.org/pandemic.pdf, contains not only background information on the avian influenza/pandemic threat, but also planning checklists, sample BCP documents and links to additional resources online. Additional information in the manual includes:

Avian Flu & Pandemic Basic Facts<
BC Planning Approach & Examples
Pandemics Impact Checklists
Pandemic Pre-Planning Checklists
Pandemic Response Checklists
Pandemic Control & Mitigation
Avian Flu & Pandemic Resources

EORM/Occupational Hazards Webcast Archive:
Avian Flu and Pandemics: Practical Guidance for Preparing your Company,
presented by Cliff Thomas
EORM, Inc. provides environmental health and safety management and technical services that can support your pandemic planning efforts. To contact Cliff Thomas or one of our other Business Continuity Planning experts, call 800.648.1506 or email us with questions. Outside the United States, please call 408.790.9200.

Cliff Thomas, CBCP, a key member of the EORM Business Continuity Services delivery team, has over 21 years experience in developing and implementing preparedness programs in numerous industry sectors, the military, and all levels of government. While a member of the U.S. Coast Guard, he received the Vice President’s Hammer Award for innovative approaches to national emergency response challenges. Cliff assisted the Naval Postgraduate School in the development of homeland security coursework, instructs Business Emergency Management in Denver, Colorado, and consults internationally on a wide range of disaster preparedness matters.

Harmony A. Scofield is Creative Services Administrator at EORM, Inc., and is part of the EORM corporate marketing team.